Although “both teams to score” (BTTS) may be one of the more reliable markets in football, how often does it happen from a statistical perspective? The information from five major European leagues from 2015 to 2025 demonstrates some interesting differences in BTTS between selected leagues.
Some leagues produce BTTS almost all of the time, while others are much more defensive in nature. Expected goals (xG) provide another layer in the idea of measuring the likelihood of the creation of chances, compared to what actually happens. For the bettor, it is important to decipher the difference between frequency and probability; in some cases, the odds may be more misleading than helpful.
Historical Frequency of BTTS
There was a significant variation in BTTS counts from 2015 to 2020 for the larger leagues. The Premier League generally had counts within the range of 51 to 53, apart from occasional outliers, as Serie A had counts in the range of 55 to 57 during the same period. For many fans and bettors using various online betting sites, these heavy counts had become the point of reference for any discussion or debate. The Bundesliga had a similar attacking ability to Serie A and a similar defensive ability. Ligue 1 ended up at the other end with 48 and 49 points. This variability in BTTS counts shows how fashions in leagues can have an effect on frequency.
COVID-19 restrictions on crowds interrupted these numbers. Between 2020 and 2021, BTTS counts declined by two to three percent in many leagues in seasons with no crowds. The home advantage had diminished, the pressure on matches was reduced, and teams had increased control defensively. By 2022, crowds returned, but the BTTS numbers did not exactly return to pre-COVID levels as many people expected.
Expected Probability via xG Models
xG models make a prediction about the number of goals to be scored based on the quality of the shot and the location. These numbers are now incorporated in BTTS odds in markets, but there are still market inefficiencies. Bettors should monitor the cases when xG values are not equal to the real frequency.
The determinants of xG vs. BTTS probability are:
- Shot volume and conversion rates: Teams that create opportunities but have low finishing.
- Defensive strength: Clubs that permit low-danger shots.
- League styles: Treatment vs. conservative football.
These loopholes give players an opportunity to determine discrepancies between the anticipated probability and the market price.
League-Specific Variations
The frequency of both teams scoring varies across leagues, even within the elite leagues of Europe. Premier League games tend to be more open-ended, and Serie A will also provide tactical battles that result in scoring duels. The Bundesliga is predominantly an intense, high-tempo game with defences tiring, while La Liga is a possession-based team with control that leads to lower BTTS scoring outcomes. This is important for bettors to be aware of. It is not only about the stats – setting is just as important when leagues address the topic of attacking and defending.
Premier League and Serie A
The Premier League has had a consistent record of posting BTTS rates well over 50 per cent due to the pressing systems and defensive gaps in the mid-table teams. Between 2017 and 2022, over 50 percent of the games had a result in both goals. Many punters who follow MelBet online betting point out that these rates often make England one of the most active BTTS markets. These figures are usually overblown by clubs such as Liverpool and Manchester City, since they have high lines that enable them to counterattack.
Serie A is a somewhat different story. With its traditional defensive nature, it has become a league in which attacking football succeeds. The rate of BTTS fell around 55% between 2018 and 2021. Atalanta and Roma matches became trusted BTTS games, and it is possible to observe how the Italian scoring profile was changed by the evolution of the tactic.
Bundesliga and La Liga
The Bundesliga is the most friendly league in regard to BTTS. Between 2016 and 2021, its rate averaged over 57, the highest of the big five. This trend is driven by teams such as Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig having an attack-oriented strategy with some defensive weaknesses. Draws of high scores are frequent, which makes the market extremely volatile.
The figures of La Liga are lower, with an average of 48-50 percent over the same years. Spanish football is typically control-oriented, and some teams tend to focus on clean sheets rather than risk-taking. Barcelona, Real Madrid, and good mid-table matches do drive BTTS upwards. Nevertheless, the frequency on the whole is less than that in Germany, proving stylistic differences.
How Markets React Over Time
Placing wagers on Both Teams to Score (BTTS) has become a more difficult market to wager in as sportsbooks have refined their data models. Betting odds in 2015, for example, the betting odds almost always assumed both sides were going to score, especially in high-scoring leagues like the Bundesliga. And by 2022, again the odds and opportunities had improved, with casual punters typically only left with limited options against the league avg. to date when betting BTTS. Markets have raced, however, with live expected goals (xG) data to quickly adjust if either a goal-scoring event occurs or a defender makes an unexpected error.
Return on Investment (ROI) numbers illustrate the changing ease readily. Betting on BTTS in Germany was slightly profitable between maybe 2016-2018 (e.g. at €20 stakes. With numbers after or including 2020. clearly downward trending due to likely algorithm improvements. Now skilled BTTS punters are banking on specific types of niche betting opportunities (e.g. mid-table conflicts where at least one is a slight contradiction or in contrast with the other side’s style), typically averaging in expected outcomes.
Future of BTTS Betting
Having standardized live xG data will sharpen betting markets for both teams to score. By 2025, players’ underlying stats will be incorporated by the bookmakers. Factors like a striker’s finishing run or a defensive injury may also find their way into the odds associated with teams to score.
Betters will account not just for historical BTTS rates but contextual BTTS rates: how hard a team presses, fatigue levels, fixture congestion, and similar factors. The line between guessing and informed betting will begin to blur, where prep work is rewarded, and lazy assumptions get punished.